It’s Already Down to Trump and Hillary


By Gabe Geytsman

There are 7 months or so until Election Day in November and right now there are 3 Republican and 2 Democratic candidates running for their respective nominations.

On the Democratic side, the story isn’t new or particularly riveting. Because of the fact that all Democratic contests are proportional, and because of the superdelegate system, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has emerged to be the prospective nominee, running against the diligent but noncompetitive Senator Bernie Sanders.  Sanders would have to win upwards of 77% of all remaining delegates that have not yet been awarded to overcome the lead Clinton has built up, while he has polled just about even with her, and his amount of support in state primaries and caucuses comes around to about even with Clinton’s. In fact, just about the only thing that could prevent Hillary from seizing the Democratic nomination at this point is a timely federal indictment on the numerous felony charges Republicans hope the FBI will bring in regards to Clinton’s email scandal. While not necessarily impossible, it is astronomically unlikely.

The Republican race, however, suffers from a distinct lack of clarity. Donald Trump, the billionaire from New York, is the unquestionable frontrunner, but his victory is far from certain. He faces a very serious roadblock at the GOP convention, where a Jacksonian “corrupt bargain” might be enacted to “steal” the nomination from the candidate with the most votes. First of all, Trump has suffered from poor ground game since Iowa, preferring to rely upon the one-man team of Donald Trump and his host of voters. Cruz has him outgunned, and has rounded up, for example, all the delegates Colorado had to offer, because rather than a state primary, Colorado featured district conventions where ground game is an absolute prerequisite for victory. Trump has fallen below his state targets following his loss of Ohio, and has not recuperated; there is a good chance that he will not reach the magic number of 1,237 delegates before the convention.

Sophomore Justin Cohen, who took both American Gov and Legal Studies, remarks that “right now it seems like a roller coaster, and there can be an upset any day now.”

He’s right. Every delegate matters, and the odds of a Trump nomination or a contested convention swing with every primary, caucus, and state convention. At this point, any certain prediction of the outcome of the GOP race is worthy of the mad hatter, making it seem like on the Republican side, it might be anyone’s game.

Trump might be unpopular, but so is Hillary Clinton. Trump might be behind in the polls, but there are seven months until the election. Trump’s rhetoric could turn red states blue, but his stances on trade and blue collar support could turn blue states red. The point is that there’s a feasible electability argument to be made for Trump that does not exist for anyone else. If the nominee is Trump, he might not lose to Clinton.

So even though there are 2 Democratic candidates running, and a large variety of prospective nominees including the 3 Republicans running, don’t be fooled: the next President of the United States is going to be either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.