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Election Predictions 3 Weeks Before Iowa

By Gabe Geytsman

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There are exactly three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, the first state primaries in the Republican primary race which has been especially heated this election cycle with 16 candidates + one rogue Donald Trump. As the elections draw nearer, more and more voters are decided and more and more information comes to light.

For Ted Cruz, the prospects are pretty good. Recent polls have consistently shown him to be the front-runner, and he has developed “ground game” which translates to active, committed supporters who are committed to voting. For now, all Cruz has to do is not mess up and stay relevant. Republican leaders are preparing for a Cruz victory, and are ready to celebrate a victory that isn’t Trump’s.

For Trump, there are some serious concerns in Iowa. Partially out of objective reporting, partially out of hate for Trump, the media has concentrated on his weaknesses in Iowa, especially his ground game. Reports have surfaced that Trump voters are new to voting, are not committed to voting, and of course, polls show Trump is in second place in Iowa. However, Trump isn’t necessarily worried. Iowa is not a winner-take-all state. This means that Iowa apportions its 30 delegates to the electoral collage proportionally to statewide results. For example, if Cruz got 33 percent of the vote, and Trump got 33 percent, both would receive 10 delegates. Because polls show Cruz in the lead by only a small margin often within the margin of error, Trump could certainly come off Iowa strong.

Rand Paul, who has been one of the less popular candidates of the Republican race and has popularity for representing libertarians, has succeeded in two aspects. First, Paul has captured a newly enthusiastic youth vote, as many younger voters identify with the libertarian sentiment. Secondly, Paul has secured 1007 precinct captains, which is 60 percent of the 1681 precincts. A Precinct Captain is an elected official in the American political party system. The office establishes a direct link between a political party and the voters in a local election district. This kind of support could well mean a Paul victory in Iowa, or at least serious delegatory representation.

Carson, Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Fiorina, Christie, Gilmore, and Huckabee are all irrelevant and deserve to lose. Carson and Rubio are likely to receive at least some delegates, but the others are set to fail horribly in the first primary state. Historically, many candidates have dropped out after Iowa. It’ll be interesting watching the narrowing of the Republican race.

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Gabe Geytsman, Assistant Senior Editor

This senior somehow ended up being Assistant Senior Editor. Gabe formerly held the post of Political Analyst in his junior and sophomore years. He enjoys...

1 Comment

One Response to “Election Predictions 3 Weeks Before Iowa”

  1. Jenna Sundel on January 13th, 2016 12:57 PM

    I agree with you. There are way too many republican candidates, and only Trump, Rubio, and Carson are the relevant ones in my opinion. I would love to see an article about the democrats too!

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Election Predictions 3 Weeks Before Iowa